10 Minute Goal Setting for Substackers
Not sure what goals to set? Dread the process? Get going with my easy 10 minute goal setting session.
Does the goal setting gorilla have you by the throat?
Do you:
Hate setting goals but know deep down you should?
Feel like you lack data or don’t know how to analyze it?
Not sure where to start?
You’re not alone. Put me in a room with some IT people and we can set goals and milestones all day.
When it comes to my own work, however, I overthink the hell out of it.
My Substack is new, but I’ve built newsletter and social media audiences before. I’ve got this, right? Still…
Read on to see how I came up with my speedy 10 minute goal setting session for my Substack (copy my process).
Why Does Goal Setting Have to Be So Hard?
Hint: Like me, you’re probably overthinking it.
Too many numbers, too many stats. What are the rules here, anyway?
After quite a bit of research procrastination and stalling, ahem, I decided on a simple goal-setting approach for my Substack.
10 Minute Goals
In 10 minutes, you'll know exactly what to do daily and weekly, even if you hate goals or struggle to stick to them.
And that 10 minutes includes reading this post. In fact, by the time you’re done reading it, you’ll have your numbers.
Is any of this you?
Not a fan of goal setting?
Feels too complicated?
Too new to Substack to have any data or know how?
My guess is all you know is you want readers, but they don’t just show up. To get readers, you need subscribers.
To get subscribers, you need to do basically 2 things:
Produce great content for your ideal reader.
Get the word out about your Stack.
Let’s dive in…
How I Simplified My Substack Goals
This process works well even if:
You’re new to newsletters or audience building.
You're unsure how to monetize Substack.
You hate goal setting, numbers, or spreadsheets.
Look Ma, no spreadsheets!
Curbing Overwhelm
Goals feel like big, hairy, scary things and most people don’t like numbers and stats.
The solution: A simple, no-fuss-no-muss approach to setting goals. No spreadsheets, no overwhelming analysis.
We’ll skip the complex stats and bypass the spreadsheets. You won’t stress over conversion rates or open rates.
You don't even need a clear niche yet (although I recommend you make that decision ASAP).
We’ll cut through all that with an easy plan to grow your subscribers.
You’ll set manageable goals and adjust as you go. No need to think about paid subscribers yet—that’s for later.
Whatever else you’ve been told you have to do… throw it out and just do this.
For the next 3 months, focus on growth:
Figure out how to grow free subscribers.
Learn how fast you can grow.
After 90 days (or before), you’ll have the stats you need to adjust. The reason we need to focus on growth is so we’ll have enough stats to see what’s working (yes, stats, I know, but that comes later).
Right now, we’re only concerned with goals in these 3 areas:
Subscriber growth
Posting frequency
Engagement
So what’s the process? Introducing…
Fermi Estimation: Goal Setting Simplified
Fermi estimation is a back-of-the-napkin calculation to get you close enough so you can move forward. You don’t need exact numbers—just quick, reasonable guesstimates.
Enrico Fermi was able to predict, within an order of magnitude, the force of the blast from the first nuclear bomb.
He estimated the power output of the first nuclear bomb by dropping pieces of paper and seeing the wind shift created by the blast. He quickly estimated it at 10,000 tons of TNT, which was close to the actual 21,000 tons of TNT produced by the blast.
Close enough for government work and close enough for us to use as well.
Why use it?
It’s fast.
It cuts through complexity.
It’s great for anyone who hates detailed data analysis.
Benefits:
Focus: Keeps goals realistic, not aspirational.
Actionable: Helps you act quickly, without second-guessing.
Let’s go!
The Rules
Well, we're not going to be dropping pieces of paper and we're certainly not setting off a nuclear bomb.
We’re just going to borrow from Fermi and use estimates for subscriber growth, posting frequency, and engagement.
For your estimations, you can only use powers of 10 (1, 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000) etc.
Step 1: Setting Subscriber Growth Goals
Start with a simple question: Where am I now, and where could I be in 90 days?
In the past, I've been able to put well over 1,000 people into a newsletter in less than a month (faster, actually). I did that, however, using incentives (giveaways, contests), lead magnets, and an existing social media audience.
I’m going to assume you and I have none of the above just yet.
For my new newsletter, I don't have a social media audience to speak of in the niche, and I haven't decided on adding any incentives or running any promotions yet.
I don’t even have a decent about page or welcome email yet (I’ll optimize later).
Judging by my experience and that of other Substackers, I'm going to say that 1,000 is too a high a number for 90 days of "normal" non-incentivized growth.
I’m going to estimate I can grow by 100 new subscribers in 90 days (10 is too few, and 1,000 is too many).
If you're just starting out, I suggest you choose 100 as well.
If you've been at this for a while, though, and you normally get a lot more than 100 new subscribers in 3 months, then feel free to adjust that number.
Remember... there is going to be some attrition. People will unsubscribe and that is just how the world is.
My 90 day target is 100 new subscribers, so I’ll write that down. You do the same.
Key Tips:
Keep it manageable.
Don’t expect explosive growth overnight.
Step 2: Defining Posting Frequency Goals
When I say posting, in this case I mean creating a newsletter and sending it out (like the one you’re reading).
Lots of creators talk about consistency being a key factor in their newsletter growth.
Personally, I think it’s the frequency and the compounding effect that’s created and not the consistency itself.
For example, if I post once every year, that’s consistent, but the frequency would not be enough to get any traction.
Back to the calculations…
Use Fermi to set posting goals:
We can work the posting frequency numbers in one of two ways.
Way 1: Estimate how many new subscribers we’ll get per post.
Let’s use our Fermi numbers here and say that with each post, we will gain 10 new subscribers (1 is too few but 100 is too many to expect). That seems reasonable to me.
That means that in order to gain 100 subscribers in 90 days, we need to make 10 posts, or one every 9 days (90/10). That is a doable goal for most, even part time.
If we can create more posts than that, we should, in theory, grow faster.
Way 2: Factor in how much time you have.
Factors to consider:
Your schedule.
The depth of your content.
Audience expectations.
Questions:
How much time do you have to write each week? (e.g. 3 hours)
How long does it take to write a post? (e.g. 1.5 hours per post)
Fermi logic: If you have 3 hours, post twice per week.
Goal: Pick a number you can stick with based on either of the examples of above (e.g. 1-2 posts per week or one every 9 days).
Once per week looks like a happy medium to get us close to 100 new subscribers in 90 days.
Am I wrong about the numbers? It doesn’t matter! That’s the beauty of it. We don’t have to be right, we just have to get going.
Note: I realize you may have a preconceived idea of what your posting frequency should be, or you’re already on a cadence you don’t want to change.
If your newsletter is a once per month publication, go for it. If it’s daily, stick with it. In my experience, daily newsletters often grow very fast.
The whole point of this exercise is to get you moving in a direction. These are just estimates. If it’s important to you to stay on track, then stick with what you’ve got.
Step 3: Setting Engagement Goals (Replies, Comments, Substack Notes)
Why engagement matters: It’s not just about getting readers—it’s about connecting with them and with others on the platform. Engagement both fuels and stabilizes growth.
Set simple, realistic goals for engaging:
How often can you post on Substack Notes? (e.g. 1-2 times daily)
How many comments (on posts) and replies (on Notes) can you aim for? (e.g. 1, 10)
Restacks (e.g. 1, 10)
Use Fermi estimation to find a sweet spot:
Example: I’m shooting for (daily):
Notes: 1
Comments (on posts) and Replies (Notes): 10 combined
Restacks: 1
Keep it light:
Engagement is about building relationships, not hitting hard numbers.
If these numbers seem like too much for you, don’t stress.
Remember that engagement is a two-way street. Make the first move.
It’s hard to calculate the direct effect these activities will have on subscriber growth.
What this will do, however, is make up for some of the attrition you’ll experience through unsubscribes. It also will help you grow, although we don’t know by how much.
Reality Check
If you’ve been playing along with me up until now, you should have your goals set for the next 90 days:
A realistic target for number of new subscribers.
A newsletter posting schedule.
Daily activities for engagement (comments, replies, Notes, restacks).
Tracking Progress Without Getting Stuck in the Numbers
Minimalist tracking: Forget about spreadsheets. Just jot these down weekly.
How many new subscribers?
How many posts?
How many comments, replies, or restacks?
Notice when you get a surge of growth and note what was happening. Was it a restack? A conversation in Notes?
Quick checks: Write these numbers down once a week—no need to obsess daily.
Adjust as needed: If your goals feel too easy or too hard, tweak them.
Stay motivated:
Celebrate small wins—each new subscriber, comment, reply, or restack is progress.
Don’t get bogged down by a week of slow growth or unsubscribes.
90 Days to a Stronger Substack Newsletter
The Recap:
Set simple goals using Fermi estimation.
Focus on subscriber growth, posting frequency, and engagement.
Keep tracking light and easy.
Next Steps:
Now that you have an easy goal setting process for your Substack, you can apply it to other areas. Since you’re creating content, you may also be interesting in:
Final thoughts:
You don’t need complex tools, lots of calculations, or big data.
Stay consistent. Keep it simple.
In 90 days, you’ll see measurable growth—without the overwhelm.
See, I told you, no spreadsheets!
Aside from spinning my own wheels, I was inspired to write this post by two things: Jason Cohen’s explanation of how Fermi estimation can be used in ROI calculations and
’s more in depth Substack growth goals post.I hope this helps. Drop me a comment and let me know where you’re starting from and what your goals are.
This is very insightful. I will definitely try to use the learning from here. Thank you